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在不远的将来日本有没有可能脱离美国轨道和中国建立更紧密的联盟关系?
2019-10-28 东拐西拐 29273
原文地址
原文地址:https://www.quora.com/How-likely-is-it-that-in-the-near-future-Japan-leaves-the-orbit-of-the-USA-to-form-a-much-closer-alliance-with-China
正文翻译
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:东拐西拐 转载请注明出处

How likely is it that in the near future, Japan leaves the orbit of the USA to form a much closer alliance with China?

在不远的将来日本有没有可能脱离美国轨道和中国建立更紧密的联盟关系?


评论翻译
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:东拐西拐 转载请注明出处

Miyu Takahashi, Just another Quora User
Requested by Hatton Nicholas.
“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests”.
-Henry Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston
Japan is the MOST important U.S. partner in Asia. Japan has been considered as an important part for the American world order in Asia since the end of the Second World War, and is the reason why U.S. intervened in the Korean War and the Vietnam war is the fear of a communist Japan which can easily block America's movement in Asia.
Even after the Cold War, the Japan-U.S. mutual security treaty is very important for U.S. vision for Asia, in which the Japanese are very eager collaborators. The U.S. also gives intelligence and information regarding world affairs to Japan, which is one of the reasons why Japan could notice a disturbance in the East Asian region (North Korea having nuclear weapons, for example).
Oh, and Japan is the most generous nation with paying the cost of an American military presence, paying 75% of the share. Japan is a nation the United States must consider in their policy-making in Asia.
I do see the relationship with China getting better to a degree. However, it's very unlikely that the relationship with China will ever reach this degree of closeness.
Japan actually viewed China as favourable as the United States until Tiananmen square protests and crackdown happened. Since then, Japan and China have viewed each other as adversaries with heavy distrust of one another, but they cooperate nonetheless because of strong economic lixs.

国家间没有永远的朋友,只有永远的利益。
日本是美国在亚洲最复要的伙伴。自二战以来,日本被认为是美国世界秩序的复要组成部分,也是美国干涉朝鲜战争和越南战争的原因,从而阻止美国在亚洲的行动。



For America:
Most Americans strongly support American interference and involvement on every continent of the earth. For America to lose its number one ally in East Asia would mean a huge blow to American pride. Any president that allows this to happen would either be impeached or violently thrown out of the White House.
America does not want to see a strong China, either militarily or economically. This is the reason why America refused to back China’s OBOR, and why America intentionally created the Trans-Pacific Partnership just to ignore China; America is doing what it can to contain the rise of China, not support it.
America is trying to form very strong ties with all countries surrounding China, not just Japan, but also Philippines and Vietnam (the former being an enemy country not too long ago). Losing a valuable ally like Japan would make both the Philippines and Vietnam question the competency of American foreign affairs.

对于美国:
大部分美国人都支持美国介入全球任何一个地方。如果美国失去了亚洲的头号盟友,那将对美国的骄傲造成巨大破坏。任何总统如果答应这种事情发生,不是被弹劾就是被暴力赶下台。
美国不想看来一个强大的中国,包括军事和经济。所以美国拒绝支持中国的一带一路,美国还有意建立TPP,忽视中国;美国极尽所能牵制中国崛起,而不是支持中国。
美国努力的与中国周边国家建立强大的关系,不仅仅是日本,还有菲律宾和越南。失去日本这么复要的盟友会导致菲律宾和越南怀疑美国的外交能力。



Cedric Chiu, Radar Engineer working on Weapons
Short term buniness concern aside….. Historically, Japan are reluctant to be a follower and subordinate of Great Asian Continental Powers (Song, Ming, Qing Dynasty, and the Mongols, Japan basically distant it self from those. Japanese like Tang but didn’t want to be its political follower)
Japan is the Asian Version of Great Britain. Both Japan are Britain are islands that are big enough to have a ego, but are too small to take direct control of the continent nearby.
So as long as they want to remain independent (and keep their “ego”), they will either distant themselves from a big continental power, tried to meddle with it, or make alliance with another distant power (in the example of Great Britain, its Russia in the 19th century, and USA in the 20th).
The strategic error the Japanese made during 1930s, is they try to take on great continental powers (China and Russian) without allying themselves with another great power (Britain or USA)…
I think the Japanese learned this lesson and it seems like they are quiet happy with the alliance with USA.

不谈短期的商业因素。历史上,日本都不情愿成为亚洲大陆强国的追随者和下属(比如宋,明,清,以及蒙古人,日本基本上和他们保持距离。日本人喜欢唐朝,但是不想成为其政治追随者)
日本即使亚洲的大英帝国。日本和英国都是岛屿,大来足够拥有自我,但是又太小,无法控制附近的大陆。
只要日本人想要保持独立(保持他们自己的“自我”),他们就会和大型的陆地强国保持距离,或者搞乱它,或者和另一个遥远的强国建立联盟(大英帝国的例子中,就是19世纪的俄罗斯,以及20世纪的美国)。1930年代日本所犯下的战略错误就是一方面想拿下大陆强国(中国和俄罗斯),另一方面又没有与另一个强国结盟(英国或者美国)。
我认为日本人汲取了这个教训,所以他们乐意与美国结盟。
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